双语:受疫苗提振,美元美股相关性减弱,“比翼双飞”

本周,Robinhood等交易平台上涌现出的散户交易者们在金融市场上掀起的风浪逐渐平息。随着被他们“pick”的股票价格一落千丈,散户接着抱团转战白银市场,推动银价达到八年来的高位。

As the fallout from last week's invasion of the Robinhood retail trader brought last week starts to somewhat fade, following the abrupt fall of their championed stock picks and failure to capitalise in a foolhardy attempt to drive silver higher earlier in the week.  

股市重新回归持续稳步走高的轨道中,虽受到营收季“优异成绩单”的提振,但却没有过分夸大积极情绪。本周略微发生改变的是,美元在疫苗的帮助下受到提振。

The stock market settled back into the groove of the continual grind higher, buoyed but certainly not overstating the overwhelming positivity brought by earnings season. There was a slight shift in dynamics this week as the “vaccine trade” emerged as the US Dollar based driver.

我们都早已习惯了这样的“规律”——股市表现得好,那么作为避险资产的美元则会走弱。然而本周让人感到意外的是,由于美国继英国和以色列之后大力推广新冠疫苗接种,在疫苗的分发和设施配备上取得积极进展,再加上新冠感染率曲线在到达峰值后开始下降,美元突然凭借自身魅力成为了投资者的宠儿,而不再是作为衡量股市的晴雨表。

Whilst we had become used to positive stocks meaning weaker dollar as the “risk” trade there was a clear disjoint from this as the US behind Israel and the UK ramped up their vaccination program, making positive strides in the distribution and facilitation of the vaccine.  Coupled with a plateau and modest downturn in infection rates suddenly the US Dollar became more in demand in its own right, rather than a by-product of the stock market moves.

在抗疫纾困计划这件事上,美国总统拜登还有很长的一段路要走。拜登急切希望能得到两党的支持,通过他1.9万亿的抗疫纾困计划,然而10位共和党参议员却联名致信拜登,希望将规模缩减到6000亿左右。

There remains a lot of work to be done over the stimulus plan as Joe Biden pushes ahead with his large cheque manifesto promise keen to get a bipartisan agreement with 10 Republican Senators keen to reduce the payments.  

下周,参议院将对前任美国总统特朗普进行弹劾审判,然而特朗普却表示不会出席作证。这件事对金融市场不会有太大影响。

Next week we will see the news dominated by the impeachment trial of Donald Trump, with him seemingly reluctant to attend the trial. This should not typically be a market driver, but it will of course dominate the headlines.

尽管从长期来看,我们认为股市将持续走高,然而同时也要为在合适的时间退出做好准备。有两点值得我们关注,首先,由于美国处于低利率环境,且美联储也暗示将会继续维持低利率,美国储户们不得不将资金转投向股市,然而当疫情过去后,投资者很可能重新拥抱更安全更稳健的银行产品;其次,尽管目前疫情得到部分缓解,然而人们仍然担心美国是否能挺过第二波疫情。如果较坏的情况发生,股市必然会遭受重压。

Whilst we retain our view of near-term gradual appreciation of the stock markets, we do have to start considering the timing of exit. There are two factors that must be considered in the forward outlook. Firstly, due to low interest rates US savers have been driven towards the stock markets for return, whilst the Fed are signalling that isn’t about to change in the near term, however IF the battle against the vaccine starts to be won at pace, we could see a migration from stocks back into typical safer and secure banking products. Secondly, if we look at the opposite virus scenario, where whilst modest improvements are happening now, there remains concerns that the US has not faced the second wave and strain of the virus and if that was to materialise this would certainly weigh on the stock markets questioning the optimism.

另一个受到疫苗利好影响的货币是英镑。尽管“脱欧”带来的伤痛还未痊愈,但英国在疫苗批准、分发和运送方面都有不错的表现。英镑本周表现强劲,甚至盖过了美元的风头,投资者更有信心建立长期头寸。

The other benefactor of the “vaccine trade” is the UK’s Pound. Whilst still battered and bruised from the Brexit fallout, the prompt approval, distribution and delivery of vaccines has been impressive. As such the pound has enjoyed a strong week even against the US Dollar as confidence to build reserves and long positioning grows.

尽管我们与社交和商业活动正常化的“后疫情生活”还有数周乃至数月的距离,但似乎已经看到春夏来临时重归正轨的希望了。本周英格兰银行货币政策委员会会议也印证了这一点。与预期的一样——利率维持不变,但在新闻发布会上,英格兰银行行长贝利明确表示,此前关于负利率的讨论只是预防性的,英格兰银行不认为未来6个月内有降息的可能性。这样的消息了也引发了大量英镑买入。

Whilst we remain weeks if not months from a normalisation of social and business activity it is starting to feel like a degree of normality is coming in spring/summertime. This was underpinned this week at the UK Bank of England MPC meeting where, as expected interest rates were left unchanged. But it was the comments in the press conference from Head Andrew Bailey where he looked to clarify that past discussion on negative rates was purely precautionary, and that whilst financial institutions should prepare themselves structurally to deal with them, the BoE do not seem the possibility of a rate cut to negative in the next 6 months, triggering heavy Pound buying.

正如上一篇文章中所提到的,欧元是我们最偏爱的空头头寸。由于欧元区国家难以赶上其他国家疫苗接种的脚步,并深受荷兰和意大利国内政治危机的困扰,本周欧元兑英镑跌至0.8740低位。

As noted last week in our update we have been and remain a big supporter of the long EUR/GBP trade which has been one of the biggest currency movers of the week making a low of 0.8740 as the Eurozone remains well off the pace with the vaccine rollout and struggling with political disruption in Holland and most notably Italy.

本周另一则重要消息是,德国经济专家委员会可能会下调2021年德国GDP预期。德国作为经济实力最强的欧盟成员国,这样的消息无疑会令人感到担忧。在全球股市上涨以及欧元疲软的刺激下,欧洲股市本周表现较为不错,德国DAX指数在周四逼近历史高位水平。

This week also brought news that the German Council of Economic Experts may need to cut 2021 German GDP Forecast which within the stronger countries of the bloc bears concern. With the Euro falling 4 of the 5 days this week and global stocks on the rise, Euro Stocks did enjoy a good week with the DAX in touching distance of all time highs on Thursday.

From a data perspective, it's a relatively quiet week ahead with New Year celebrations but as always, Virus levels, US Stimulus and perhaps for the last time Trump news will dominate the markets.

祝一周愉快!牛年快乐!

Have a great week and Happy New Year! 

 

The Week Ahead:

 

Monday – A quiet start to the week with early data from Japan with Lending, Current Account and Economic Sentiment Data. From the Eurozone we get German Industrial Production and Euro Sentix data.

周一数据较少,日本将发布借贷数据、经常账户和经济景气指数。欧元区数据包括德国工业产值以及Sentix欧元区数据。

 

Tuesday – Early in Asia we get the UK BRC Retail Sales numbers before NAB Business Confidence,New Zealand's Inflation Expectations and China’s Trade Balance. In the European Session its Trade Balance data from Germany and Italian Industrial Production numbers.

亚洲早盘,我们将得到英国零售商协会发布的零售业销售额、澳大利亚国民银行发布的商业信心指数、新西兰通胀预期以及中国发布的贸易差额。欧洲时段,我们将得到德国贸易差额和意大利工业产值等数据。

 

Wednesday – The day starts in Asia with Japan’s PPI as well as China's CPI and PPI numbers. In the European session we get German CPI, French Industrial Production and UK NIESR GDP Estimate. From the US its CPI and Wholesale Inventories numbers before the BoE Bailey and Fed's Powell both deliver speeches

日本发布PPI,中国发布CPI和PPI。欧洲时段,德国发布CPI,法国发布工业产值,NIESR发布的英国GDP预期。美国方面,我们将得到CPI和批发库存数据,英格兰银行行长贝利和美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。

 

Thursday – With China and Japan both on national holidays the first data comes with UK RIC’s house price data before European Economic Forecasts. In the US session we get weekly Unemployment Claims.

中国和日本均处在全国假期中。欧洲数据包括英国RIC房价数据和欧洲经济预期。美国将发布周失业救济申请。

 

Friday – With much of Asia still on holiday the first numbers come with a data dump from the UK as we get UK Prelim GDP, Construction, Trade Balance, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Prelim Business Inv numbers. European Industrial Production comes later in the morning and in the afternoon we get US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

亚洲大部分国家都处在假期。英国发布大量数据,包括预先GDP、建造数据、贸易差额、工业产值、制造业产值。之后,我们将得到欧洲工业产值。下午,我们将得到美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数以及通胀预期。

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